LIVING SYSTEMS INTELLIGENCE
Decision intelligence

Decisions

Decision Intelligence is structured reasoning, not automated advice. Each signal connects a solution to the threats it addresses and the services and human systems it may strengthen — with explicit leverage, urgency, confidence, difficulty and the gaps that remain. It is meant to inform judgement, not replace it.

Amazon — flagship living system

Protected areas as a high-leverage forest-protection pathway

Protected Areas
LeverageHigh
UrgencyHigh
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyModerate
HorizonLong-term

Where effectively governed, protected areas may reduce forest conversion, which could help sustain carbon storage, habitat and rainfall regulation that several human systems depend on.

Data gap: Effectiveness depends heavily on governance and enforcement.
Review ReviewedWWF_AMAZONRAISG
Learning linked to this decision

Protection status alone is not enough

PartlySupported
Expected

Protected areas may reduce conversion and support carbon and habitat.

Observed

Outcomes are context-dependent; governance and enforcement appear decisive.

Learned

Protection status alone is not enough — governance, enforcement and local context shape outcomes.

Decision implication

Treat protected areas as necessary but not sufficient; weight governance alongside designation.

Confidence MediumMedium(Unchanged)Review ReviewedWWF_AMAZONRAISG
Data gap: Quantitative effect sizes vary by region.

Indigenous stewardship as a high-leverage governance pathway

Indigenous Stewardship
LeverageHigh
UrgencyMedium
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyModerate
HorizonLong-term

Indigenous stewardship is associated with forest-protection outcomes in many contexts, which could help sustain habitat and ecosystem integrity. Outcomes are context-dependent, not guaranteed.

Data gap: Outcomes vary by territory, rights and governance context.
Review ReviewedRAISGWWF_AMAZON
Learning linked to this decision

Rights and governance are key conditions

Supported
Expected

Indigenous stewardship may support forest protection and integrity.

Observed

Strong association in many regions, varying with recognition and pressure.

Learned

Legal recognition, rights and territorial protection are important contextual conditions for outcomes.

Decision implication

Support rights recognition and governance as part of the pathway, not just designation.

Confidence MediumMedium(Unchanged)Review ReviewedRAISGWWF_AMAZON

Monitoring systems as a high-urgency detection pathway

Monitoring Systems
LeverageMedium
UrgencyHigh
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyModerate
HorizonImmediate

Satellite and field monitoring can enable faster response to deforestation, fire and illegal mining. Detection supports action but does not by itself prevent loss.

Data gap: Detection must be paired with enforcement to have effect.
Review ReviewedINPEMAPBIOMAS
Learning linked to this decision

Monitoring needs a response attached

PartlySupported
Expected

Monitoring may improve early detection of loss.

Observed

Detection is strong, but does not by itself create enforcement or restoration.

Learned

Monitoring is most useful when connected to response capacity and governance.

Decision implication

Pair monitoring investments with response capacity to realise value.

Confidence MediumMedium(Unchanged)Review ReviewedINPEMAPBIOMAS
Data gap: Response capacity not modelled.

Forest restoration as a long-term resilience pathway

Forest Restoration
LeverageMedium
UrgencyMedium
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyHigh
HorizonLong-term

Restoration can support carbon storage and habitat over time, but outcomes depend on method, scale and time, and it does not replace avoiding loss in the first place.

Data gap: Outcomes depend on method, scale and time.
Learning linked to this decision

Restoration is long-term, not a substitute for protection

NotYetObserved
Expected

Restoration may rebuild carbon and habitat over time.

Observed

Recovery is slow and depends on method, history and future protection; not yet observable here.

Learned

Restoration is a long-term resilience pathway, not an immediate substitute for protecting intact ecosystems.

Decision implication

Prioritise protecting intact forest first; treat restoration as a slower, complementary pathway.

Confidence MediumLow(Decreased)Review DraftAMAZON_INSTITUTIONAL
Data gap: No observed time-series in the system yet.
Pollination & the food system

Pesticide reduction as a high-urgency pollinator-protection pathway

Pesticide Reduction
LeverageHigh
UrgencyHigh
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyModerate
HorizonShort-term

Reducing pesticide pressure can help pollinator health and the pollination that crop production relies on. Effect sizes vary by practice and context.

Data gap: Field and laboratory effect sizes differ.
Review ReviewedIPBES
Learning linked to this decision

Pesticide reduction works best with habitat

PartlySupported
Expected

Reducing pesticide pressure may support pollinator health and pollination.

Observed

Beneficial direction, conditioned by pesticide type, exposure, habitat and management.

Learned

Pesticide reduction is stronger when combined with habitat and landscape-level measures.

Decision implication

Combine pesticide reduction with habitat measures rather than treating it as a standalone fix.

Confidence MediumMedium(Unchanged)Review ReviewedIPBES
Data gap: Field vs laboratory effect sizes differ.

Pollinator habitat as a resilience pathway

Pollinator Habitat
LeverageMedium
UrgencyMedium
ConfidenceMedium
DifficultyLow
HorizonShort-term

Providing forage and habitat can support pollinator populations and the resilience of pollination. Outcomes depend on placement and management.

Data gap: Wild vs managed pollinator dynamics not fully mapped.
Review ReviewedIPBES
Learning linked to this decision

Habitat quality matters more than area

Supported
Expected

Pollinator habitat may support pollinator populations and pollination.

Observed

Outcomes appear driven by habitat quality, connectivity and plant diversity.

Learned

Habitat interventions should focus on quality and connectivity, not only area.

Decision implication

Design habitat for quality and connectivity; measure value, not hectares alone.

Confidence MediumMedium(Unchanged)Review ReviewedIPBES